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Tools & Services

A New Chapter in Retrofit Forecasting: Why AI is Poised to Bolster Engineering Expertise

Published March 30, 2025
Chief Technology Officer
By John Rula Chief Technology Officer
Architecture Plans

In the retrofit world, precision isn’t a nice-to-have. For decades, architecture and engineering (A&E) firms have built trusted forecasting models rooted in deep technical rigor, site-specific assessments, and finely tuned simulations. That diligence has long been the gold standard.

But as the market shifts toward faster decarbonization targets, growing regulatory complexity, and increasing demand for energy performance those same firms are being asked to deliver more insights, more quickly, and often across a wider swath of building types and sizes. This challenge isn’t about shortcomings in engineering but capacity.

To help address this need, a new class of tools is emerging, built not to replace the engineer’s role, but to support and scale it. At NZero, our AI-powered Retrofit Forecasting tool aims to do exactly that: replicate early-stage energy modeling with remarkable speed and accuracy, freeing up valuable time and resources for the deeper work firms already do best.

The Bottleneck: Time, Not Talent

The traditional retrofit forecasting process can take a week or more of skilled engineering time to qualify a single opportunity. That’s time well spent, but it’s not always scalable. In a competitive landscape where more than 50% of early-stage audits never move forward, firms are often left with a backlog of prospects they can’t afford to pursue.

These aren’t bad prospects; they’re just uneconomical under current workflows. This is especially true in the small-to-midsize commercial segment, where acquisition costs often outweigh potential project value. The result is a market left underserved, not because the buildings lack potential, but because the economics don’t work.

ARUP

NZero is not a replacement for engineering judgment, but a complement. A way to free up your expert's time to focus where they add the most value.

Earning Trust with Proven Accuracy

We understand that AI solutions in the engineering space can be met with warranted skepticism. Forecasting isn’t guesswork, it’s a science. That’s why NZero’s platform was developed with validation at its core.

Our retrofit models have been trained on over 8 million calibrated simulation runs, and tested against gold-standard engineering tools. In one case, a heat pump boiler retrofit scenario for a 75,000 sq ft school in Williamson County, TX showed energy savings estimates within ~1% to ~3% of detailed calibrated models, across both electric and gas usage, over multiple quarters.

Chart

An example of our retrofit models tested against engineering tools.

This level of parity allows engineers to confidently use our platform as a pre-screening and prioritization tool, offloading repetitive modeling tasks while maintaining data-backed credibility with clients.

Where AI Supports, Not Supplants

With just basic inputs like location and baseline energy usage, NZero generates hourly forecasts for energy, cost, and emissions. Optional fields—like HVAC type, square footage, or insulation specs—further refine accuracy. The result: quick, actionable insights that help firms move projects forward faster.

For A&E teams, this means:

  • Faster early-stage qualification with real-time results
  • Expanded access to underserved market segments
  • Greater efficiency without increasing headcount
  • Improved client engagement through visualized savings and performance metrics

A Platform Built for Practitioners

NZero’s forecasting tool was developed in collaboration with retrofit professionals, not in a vacuum. Our aim was to deliver something intuitive, technically sound, and flexible enough to plug into real-world sales and design workflows.

We’re not positioning this as a replacement for engineering judgment, but as a complement. A way to free up your experts to focus where they add the most value, while still delivering accurate, trustworthy insights at speed.

Our retrofit models have been trained on over 8 million calibrated simulation runs, and tested against gold-standard engineering tools. In one case, a heat pump boiler retrofit scenario for a 75,000 sq ft school in Williamson County, TX showed energy savings estimates within ~1% to ~3% of detailed calibrated models, across both electric and gas usage, over multiple quarters.

John Rula

John Rula

Chief Technology Officer, NZero

Looking Ahead

As retrofit demand increases, driven by IRA-backed incentives, new building performance standards, and rising operating costs, firms that can respond quickly and credibly will lead the market.

For A&E firms, it can mean enhancing it with tools that support scale, precision, and speed, all without sacrificing trust.

NZero is proud to be part of that conversation, and committed to earning our place in your toolkit.

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